Canterbury Park Picks

May 23^rd 2014

Race 1          4 * 6 * 5                R1 50 CENT P4 - ALL/1,3,5/3,6/6,9 - $36

BIGDADDYWARBUCKS – I hope the ALL button is working... I’ll reluctantly go with Big Daddy here. He didn’t break off the layoff at Arlington but hoping the live spin gives him an edge over the foes coming off the very long layoffs.

GHOST SKIER – Would be the choice had he not run subpar off a similar layoff last May. Bravo has at least picked up a couple wins off this type of layoff but if last year’s season debut is any indication he’ll pop and fade down the stretch.

DESERT PRIZE – I’ll take the other 2^nd off the layoff horse for the show. He was involved early in the season debut at Prairie Meadows and then folded up. Maybe he can continue running with the additional conditioning.

Race 2          5 * 1 * 3

GREAT RIVER SKIER – When every horse is coming off 180+ day layoff it’s tough. Most of these don’t even have a 5F drill on the tab so I’ll go with Great River and Lori Keith, who’s won at a 25% clip with Bravo. Figure to be on or near the early lead and that seems to hold when these first time off the layoff type’s gallop home.

SUE’S STORMY – The other in this field that has gone 5F in the morning. He’s been in good form at times as far as MN bred’s go but was tailing off at the end of the 13’ meet. He’s been in against some of the better MN bred’s and will need to be better than he was last year off the bench.

LIL APOLLO – I think the 5/2 ML here is a little optimistic. He’s got one really nice race and a couple other efforts from 8 starts that are only maybe good enough to win here. If he runs back to that MN Derby effort he’ll win but unlikely coming off the bench with a trainer that’s 1/16 off this type of layoff.

Race 3          6 * 3 * 1

THREE CUTIES – Onto the CBY turf for race 3 and 4. Siding with the 6 who should be ready to run back to a top effort after the clunker going 6.5F’s on the dirt. Eikleberry and Silva hit at a 21% clip in 13’. She’s 8 for 17 in the money on the grass with no wins, maybe it’s time for that elusive victory.

CIAO VALENTINA – Finished in front of the top pick two back. Has ran top efforts 3 of the last 4 races and I expect she’s maybe due for a regression here. She’s a versatile gal that can run near the lead or come from the back.

RED HEADED WOMAN – 7 year old has a couple OK tries on the CBY sod. Breeding would indicate that grass might be the preferred surface but only 3 career tries over the lawn. She’s 27 for 57 in the money lifetime mostly in the sticks. Should be on or near the lead and won’t get caught wide but I doubt she can go the entire distance.

Race 4          9 * 6 * 2

FLAXEN MAIDEN – Going 2^nd out off the conditioner change to Brinson who’s 38% off this type of layoff and wins at 36% with Canchari at CBY. Back on the turf after burning money as the favorite on the Hawthorne dirt. The percentages, surface, and class seem to fit but will still need to work out a clean off the pace trip.

JULIE’S MEMORY – Finds herself back on the grass for the Ulwelling’s after going 5 straight on the dirt which doesn’t appear to be the preferred surface. The first two career races on the turf in Oklahoma were respectable. I’m expecting a move forward returning to turf and she should be positioned for a nice stalking trip.

LIAR LIAR LIAR – 6 for 9 in the money on the grass. Another Diodoro contingent that’s shipped in from the west. She’s been favored in 6 of her last 8 races and has failed to win in all but 1. She’ll need one of her very best to win.

Race 5           3 * 4 * 5                R5 50 Cent P4 – 3,4/1,4,5,6/2,5,8/1,3,7 - $36                                                        

PAPA SMITTY – Brinson has really seemed to get something out of this horse taking over for Peter Miller. I suspect he’ll enjoy a speed favoring CBY surface and bounce back with another top effort off that last. Hernandez and Brinson have teamed up to win 9 of 30, a lot to like.

GUARD THE ROCK – Has run very nicely in his two career starts. The maiden win last out was a walk over and with plenty of speed in here if they start to fall apart Papa should be sitting there with the first opportunity to pick them off.

CUZAN – It would be hard to find a more consistent runner. He’s got several races under his belt in 14’ and doesn’t run great but is respectable every single time out. 11 races, 9 times in the money and has never been worse than 5^th.

Race 6          1 * 4 * 5                                                               

MEZZANONTTE - The 36 flat drill was a top 10 3F time on the CBY tab so far this meet. We need to see if she can carry that stalk and pounce trip and continue to improve 3^rd off the layoff. Stevens returns for his 3^rd straight so she figures to be live in this spot.

DOLPHIN SHORTS – One gear speed type that comes in from the west. Her one try over the natural dirt at his distance wasn’t impressive.

HAWKEYE HONEY – Working well for Bravo and Keith hits with him at a 25% clip.

Race 7           8 * 5 * 2                R7 $5 DD 5,8/3,7 - $20

TALK THE WALK – A rater that should be able to stalk the pace in a race with a lot of speed. On a zig zag pattern of late but should be very competitive even if he doesn’t run a very top effort.

ALUMNI – Padilla is ¼ off the claim. That last effort at FG was an impressive 7 length win. He got a pretty comfortable pace going 5.5F and should get much more pressure here.

MASTER DEMAND – Stevens is back and this guy should be running off the pace and will benefit if they go crazy early.

Race 8           7 * 3 * 1

­­­­­­­­­­I’M A BULLY TOO – A very nice MSW to close out the card Friday night. This colt has been working lights out for Van Winkle, in fact as of 5/19 the 1:00 flat drill was the fastest time for any horse at 5F on the Canterbury work tab so far this meet. He needs to break better than he did last summer but I suspect he wasn’t right at 2 racing once and then shelved.

SKY SURFER – This 130K Keenland purchase has been working well for Padilla. I like the 46.3 drill which is tied with two others at the very top of the 4F CBY work tab so far this meet and then he came back a week later with a more routine work. Has the potential of being a very nice colt.

ATOMIC – He’s broke nicely and has shown he can be close early in both of his career starts. The winner last out came right back to win an allowance at Louisiana downs and it looks like he’ll appreciate cutback to 5.5F.

Friday May 16^th Results

4 for 8 top pick winners (50%). Average win ($11.53)

R3 #3 ($6)

R4 #4 ($2.10)

R7 #9 ($28.80)

R8 #10 ($9.20)

P4 spend ($34.50) returned ($0)

Late DD spend ($5) returned ($270)