Canterbury Park Picks
Another great 3 days of racing are on tap at Canterbury Park with decent weather forecasted and increasing field sizes as we enter the meat and potatoes of the Canterbury meet. The picks didn’t click last Friday night with only 1 top pick winner in 8 races. Both pick 4’s and the late daily double were toast resulting in an unprofitable evening. Last week I expected the track to more strongly favor horses on or near the lead and the opposite held true. Morning works would indicate that the track is trending faster this week so we’ll see if that translates to a more front runner friendly surface Friday evening. I’ll take a similar approach and hope for better results this week. Good luck!
Race
2 7
* 4 * 3 R2 50 CENT P4 – 3,4,7/1,6/1,3,4,6,7,9,10/5,7 - $42
NAJRAN BREEZE – Comes in with the Diodoro string from
out west and has shown he’s a runner at times. Does his best when showing some
wheels on the lead. Sports the nice bullet over the surface and Diodoro excels at
bringing them back off this type of break hitting at 26% from a large sample
size.
SOMKEM GRAY – He was going decently until he
ran into the synthetic last out at Arlington Park. I’m not sure if it was the
surface or if he was outclassed. He’s back to a level now where he’s shown competitive.
He doesn’t have a local work and is 0 for 4 with a couple place finishes from 4
starts at Canterbury.
MEABON – The race two back was a nice one
and maybe that took a bit out of him as he folded up next out a few weeks
later. He’s had another few weeks to recoup with a trainer that hits at 29% off
this type of break.
Race
3 6
* 1 * 2
WHY FRANK – The first of a couple good looking
turf races. I’ll take a chance at a price over the two most logical choices.
Frank has run all of his best races on the CBY sod and comes in 3rd
off the layoff. He just missed in this same race last August breaking from the
outside as the favorite, this is probably a slightly easier spot but he has to
improve third off the bench.
TO THE STARS – Moves back to the turf where to
date he doesn’t have an effort that’s probably good enough to win here. The
jock/trainer is a vote of confidence as they hit at 43% from 40 tries.
ELLA’S KITTEN – A Ramsey bred Kitten. The most successful
Kittens seem to come from off the pace on the grass but Ella’s all early steam.
He’s certainly ran well enough to win here but don’t love the fact that he’s
been going awhile without a break and they’re bringing him back 16 days after a
career top that probably took a little out of him. He’ll be the one they’ll
need to run down at the top of the lane.
Race
4 4
* 9 * 10
SQUARE DANCER – One of the tougher races so far this
Canterbury meet. Square Dancer comes in with Chambers off the Peter Miller claim
at the great race place. Chambers is 4 for 16 off the claim and he’s been in
against very competitive. The Canterbury HOF jock is up and he hits at 40% when
teaming with Chambers.
CARIBBEAN STORM – Has looked good in the mornings in
preparation for the return. Has hit the board in 7 of 10 attempts. Maybe he’s
ready to take the next step as 4 year old.
MACKS TIGER PAW – Threw up a clunker going first off
the long layoff at Lonestar. If he returns to last year’s mid-season form he
should be a major player here. He’ll break from the 10 and have to out run them
into the first turn to avoid a wide journey with pressure from the outside as
well.
Race
5 7
* 5 * 8
GOLD COUNTRY CAT – Gets the services of Stevens for Van
Winkle. He’s been consistently consistent and has half of his 47 tries over the
Canterbury surface where he’s 13 for 24 hitting the board. He hasn’t had his
photo taken in a while so wondering if he’s still good enough to get it done.
If he is this should be the spot
RAINIER MISSILE – Very inconsistent type and you don’t
know what you’re going to get from one race to the next. First try at
Canterbury and he’s 15 for 25 hitting the board at the distance. I expect that they go back to running him on
or near the lead here.
EURASIAN – Was improving and won two in a row before
throwing up a dud in his last. I think he’ll bounce back with a better
effort here.
Race
6 8 * 2 * 7 R6
50 CENT P4 2,8/2,7/1,4,6,7/1,7 - $16
LISTEN YOU FOOL – You can draw a line through that
last race on the turf where he stumbled out of the gate. His typical race looks
good enough to win here and he’s looked as good as any in this field on the
morning tab.
GEORGE RAY – Still going at 10. He’s been on a
7 race regression so I’m guessing this isn’t the spot where he calls up the
days of yesteryear. He’s had a nice career banking nearly 300K and even on the
decline he may be good enough to win here.
REDNECK RICHIE – Should be a pace factor in a race
that doesn’t appear to have much if any early steam. Didn’t care for the two
Fonner efforts. Giving him a chance on the front end but feel he’ll fall apart.
Race
7 7 * 2 * 4
SMART MASTERPIECE – Came in from the west and ran 2nd
two weeks ago but was dispatched by 14 lengths. They cut the tag in half
and go at them again. Logically improves
off last effort and last effort might be good enough here.
FIST FULL – Also coming back from the same
race as the top choice where he was squeezed early and didn’t have much of a
chance, a better break and he should be in the mix.
BONITA ROCK – Ran much his career best race
last out and don’t like the fact that he returns 13 days later off a really big
effort. Likely to see a regression here but will be a pace presence, don’t
think he’s had enough time to recover from the career top.
Race
8 7 * 6 * 4 R7 $2 DD
4,6,7/1,4,7 - ($18) & R7 $2 DD 7/7 ($2)
SIMPLY SECRET – Fresh in from Turf Paradise for
Silva. Should be close to the pace and should enjoy the cutback to 6 furlongs.
She’s regressed 3 in a row off the career top so hoping she’s ready to run back
to that which likely is good enough here. Silva and Eikleberry hit at a 21%
clip.
ALUMNI – Another Silva entry. This one has
spent her time on the Golden Gate tapita surface and doesn’t have a spin over
the real dirt. She’s be steadily improving and will be running from off the
pace if she handles the surface.
BRING THE CHECK – Has been a bit of a zig zagger and
zagged after leaving the Asmussen barn. Might be his turn to run a one of his
better efforts which would be in play here.
Race
9 7
* 1 * 4
SHANGRILA BAR – They thought enough of him last
summer to run in the MN Derby as a maiden and he just missed at this level at
odds on last September. Maybe he needs a race but the morning tab looks good so
I have to believe he’s ready to be a winner.
VANDERBILT BEACH – He was running on late two weeks ago
and may appreciate the added ground. Stands to improve 2nd off the
layoff.
SPEED IS LIFE– Ran impressively first time out but
also benefited from a perfect trp. First time out it looked like he could have
went longer.
Friday May 23rd Results
1 for 8 top pick winners (12.5%)
R6 #1 ($6.20)
Season 5 for 16 top pick winners (31%). Average win ($10.46)
5/23
P4 spend ($72) returned ($0)
5/23 Late DD spend ($20) returned ($0)
Friday May 16th Results
4
for 8 top pick winners (50%). Average win ($11.53)
R3 #3 ($6.00)
R4 #4 ($2.10)
R7 #9 ($28.80)
R8 #10 ($9.20)
P4
spend ($34.50) returned ($0)
Late
DD spend ($5) returned ($270)
